Weekly Buzz: The art of the (trade) deal 🤝

5 minute read

The US just struck two major trade deals – one with Japan, another with the EU – both with the headline rate of 15% tariffs. That’s soothed markets for now, but there’s a bigger story here – who’s footing the bill, and what that means for inflation, company profits, and your portfolio.

What’s going on?

Washington struck a deal with Japan this week, dialing back proposed tariffs on cars and industrial goods from 25% to 15%. In return, Japan committed to a hefty US$550 billion investment package to boost US manufacturing and supply chains.

Europe followed suit: facing the threat of 30% tariffs on nearly all exports to the US starting 1 August, the EU agreed to a 15% levy instead. That sounds reasonable – until you realise it's far more than the roughly 3% average tariff that European goods faced before. The deal also includes US$750 billion in American energy commitments and US$600 billion in additional investments.

European markets barely flinched at the news. In fact, Europe's benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 index rose to its highest level in more than four months following the announcement. That's because investors were bracing for the higher 30% levy, making 15% feel generous by comparison. It's a classic case of anchoring – when the initial threat is severe enough, a "lesser" one feels like relief.

The longer-term cost will be harder to brush off, especially for the US. Tariffs will eventually filter into company earnings and consumer prices, and could see inflation rear its ugly head again.

What this means for you

Markets don’t just react to facts – they also react to how those facts are framed. That’s why investing based on headlines is riskier than it seems: goalposts shift fast, and market sentiment moves even faster.

Instead of trying to guess at trade policy, focus on what you can control: your long-term investing strategy. More often than not, a portfolio that’s diversified across regions and asset classes means that you’re already positioned for whatever the next headline brings.

(For a portfolio that’s built to ride out global shifts, check out General Investing.)

📰 In Other News: The European Central Bank hit pause on rates

The European Central Bank (ECB) held its key interest rate at 2%, calling timeout on a year-long cutting spree. It's the central bank's first hold in 2025 as inflation settles around the ECB's 2% target. While hitting your inflation target would be cause for celebration, the ECB is already watching the horizon.

The chief concern is whether tariffs could dampen growth and distort price signals, making the ECB's job considerably more complex. While the newly inked 15% US tariff on European imports is less than the previously threatened 30%, it still tightens the screws on Europe's already sluggish economy.

Europe is also significantly ramping up defence and infrastructure spending. While this provides support for growth, it risks reigniting inflation just as central bankers had price stability secured.

The ECB left its growth forecast for 2025 unchanged at 0.9%. The backdrop leaves little margin for error, particularly if trade tensions flare up again or fiscal stimulus proves more inflationary than expected.

These articles were written in collaboration with Finimize.

🎓 Simply Finance: Anchoring bias

Anchoring bias is the tendency to latch on to the first piece of information. In investing, it can distort how we make decisions. An investor might view a company trading at $50 as a good deal simply because it was priced at $100 last year, ignoring current business conditions. It’s important to recognise when we might be anchoring to irrelevant information, and instead focus on the current fundamentals.