Weekly Buzz: The modern metal rush investors are eyeing up 💎

5 minute read

Critical metals powering our modern world – what the industry calls "future minerals" – are facing a huge supply-demand imbalance. Some analysts see this as a buying opportunity, while JPMorgan calls this the most significant commodity supercycle in decades.

What’s going on?

The International Energy Agency estimates we’ll face a copper shortage of 6 million tons by 2030 – that’s about 27% of what the world produces in an entire year. With lithium, it's predicted we'll need 20 times more by 2040 to meet clean energy goals than we did five years ago.

The supply constraints aren't just about volume – they're about geography and complexity. For example, most lithium extraction happens in just three countries: Australia, Chile, and China. Making matters worse, developing new mining operations takes years of development and tons of capital.

Meanwhile, the applications keep expanding: as an example, a single EV contains about four times more copper than a conventional car. In China, electric vehicles captured nearly 50% of car sales in 2024, up from just 2% in 2020. Governments worldwide have rolled out over 100 new policies linked to future minerals in the past three years alone.

What's the takeaway?

Your first instinct might be to buy these commodities directly. But the companies behind these future minerals are probably a savvier way to handle volatile commodity prices.

Today's equivalent of the California Gold Rush includes the upstream mining firms extracting these critical materials, sure, but also the downstream manufacturers building batteries, the companies developing charging networks, and so on. For investors, this means multiple entry points along the value chain.

(With our Flexible Portfolios, you can access targeted ETFs that track mining companies, cleantech firms developing renewable infrastructure, or create a diversified mix across the whole value chain.)

This article was written in collaboration with Finimize.

📰 In Other News: Big banks are looking to join forces on crypto

The crypto world might be getting some heavyweight backing: major US banks including JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo are reportedly exploring a joint stablecoin project.

Why team up instead of going solo? It's classic risk management. By working together, banks can share the risks that come with cryptocurrencies. It's the same playbook they used for Zelle, the instant payment service that's now used by over 2,000 US lenders.

With Trump's crypto-friendly administration, banks see an opportunity to get ahead of the curve rather than be disrupted by it. Stablecoins – cryptocurrencies pegged to more traditional assets like the US dollar – could become a major medium for international payments. If they move ahead with their plans, it’ll be a mainstream push that reflects crypto's broader evolution from fringe asset to legitimate investment.

(If you’re looking to participate in this space, our Bitcoin ETF Portfolio is a regulated way to invest without the need for digital wallets or private keys.)

📖 A Little Context: Commodity supercycles

Commodity supercycles are extended periods where raw material prices rise well above long-term trends, driven by structural changes. One example is the China supercycle in the early 2000s, when the country’s rapid industrialisation created enormous demand for metals like iron and copper. Some analysts suggest we might be at the beginning of a new supercycle, driven by the global transition to clean energy.

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